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Yeah I've seen people bring up the idea of the Switch lasting a very long time due to how long the Game Boy but that had pretty specific circumstances. The Switch has none of the circumstances I mentioned above. And lastly, there were multiple home consoles alongside the Game Boy during its life. Enough to keep it afloat a little longer and come out with the Color. And of course, Pokemon gave new wind to the rapidly aging Game Boy. If it succeeded, it probably would've leeched some resources away from the Game Boy, even if it wasn't a successor like the DS was to the GBA (despite initially being called a "third pillar"). Virtual Boy launched and died from 1995-1996. Those were a result of circumstance, namely that a Game Boy successor with similar specs to the GBA was shelved in the mid-90s due to cost. Nintendo didn't plan to ride out the Game Boy until 1998 with the Color and 2001 with the Advance. I didn't mention some of the other circumstances of the Game Boy in the OP.
And considering how successful Switch has been, that's lower than Nintendo would want.
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If Nintendo doesn't release a late-stage Pro and have at least 1-2 more heavyhitters, the Switch would likely be down to 5-7 million a year by 2026 when a successor would launch. Given what we know for now, it seems like a bad decision. By the end of 2024 the Switch's momentum will be slowing rapidly so 2026 would be an abysmal business decision.
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What would happen is Nintendo would see a massive decline in revenue from hardware and software sales falling drastically. There's no time like the present to bring up this discussion, because we could get new hardware announced early 2024 or sooner. What would happen if Switch didn't get a successor until Q4 2026? What games and potential new iterations of the Switch could we see? And do you think it could be possible for Switch to have a Pro, 4K, or Deluxe branded version that launches at some point between Q2 2024 and Q4 2026 that is a Game Boy Color situation all over again? And then would it be possible to have a Switch 2 wait all the way until Q4 2028 or later? Nintendo wants Switch to have a long-life cycle, but whether or not that means a very long-life cycle before replacement is yet to be determined.
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I mentioned both of these platforms because there is still a debate whether or not the GBC is a midgen upgrade or a successor. The Game Boy Color didn't launch until Q4 1998, and the Game Boy Advance didn't launch until the first half of 2001. The Game Boy launched in Japan and NA in 1989 (most other regions followed in 1990). Do we have some historical precedence for this? Yes, we do. It's pretty likely Switch 2 could launch at any quarter in 2024 past Q1 (the end of the fiscal year).īut let's imagine Nintendo drags the Switch out even further. Nintendo's radio silence (for now) for the rest of the year (besides Pikmin 4 and Pokemon DLC) and next year does suggest a Switch 2 is coming out at least by the end of Q1 2025. It is currently their second-best selling platform ever, and it's a reasonable prediction that it could eclipse the DS. The Switch is their first hybrid platform.
In at least a few ways, Nintendo is in unprecedented territory.
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